If you’ve been watching the news recently, you may have seen a few reports on the 2023 year end Real Estate Market sales for the GTA.
I think the most notable was the screaming headline in the Toronto Star that we had a “Terrible 2023”.
2023 Summary
So here’s a little context for that – really 2023 was a bipolar market. First half ramped up from a slump in the fall & winter of 2022. Low inventory caused home prices to rise, pretty much everywhere.
Then came a few rate hikes in June as the government attempted to rein in inflation numbers. This resulted in a second half that was pretty quiet. And has people were hesitant to list homes, sales slumped further.
The result was that NUMBER of sales were the fewest overall since 2002; but the PRICES didn’t drop as much as predicted. Of course that’s an average – highly dependent on the type of home and the area.
Because I sold some homes in the spring & in the fall last year, I can tell you there were multiple buyers interested in each property that I sold. Was the spring more aggressive? Absolutely. But there were still several buyers interested in each property.
Areas affected most in 2023
I felt the properties most affected in 2023 (and I’m talking generally about the second half) were – in no particular order:
• Luxury homes & new builds
• Pre-constructions (as people can’t qualify for closing at the new rates, we’ve seen a surge in assignment sale for new construction)
• Condos that appeal to retirees (they were reluctant to sell their homes in the fall)
• Durham – they go up the fastest; so tend to drop the fastest
Not too much affected in 2023
• Homes close to transit (especially the subway)
• In-demand neighbourhoods (Leslieville, the Annex, Leaside, the Beach, etc.)
• Beautifully renovated & presented properties
• Freehold homes priced under $1M
2024 Predictions – Mortgage rates
Now that the experts are predicting that rates will drop – likely towards spring. For those of you who don’t know, there are 8 rate announcements during the year. The first is January 24 – I don’t anticipate any changes announced then, maybe not till April or May. Probably in the range of .25% each.
My overall top 5 predictions:
1. There will be more activity this spring – those on the sidelines will list their homes, with more inventory will come more sales
2. Prices will rise, but unlikely to see spikes like last spring unless it’s an incredible property
3. Second half of 2024 will be much more active than in 2023
4. Areas outside of the GTA (like Durham) will get more active
5. You’ll see some distress sales in the pre-construction market.
